Baseline Risk Does Not Resuscitate PCI Benefit in Ischemic Cardiomyopathy: Lessons from the REVIVED-BCIS2 Sub-analysis

Introduction: The Persistent Debate in Revascularization

For decades, the management of patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy—defined by significant coronary artery disease and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)—has centered on the potential for revascularization to improve long-term survival. However, the evidence base has remained nuanced and often contradictory. The landmark STICH trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure) demonstrated a long-term benefit for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) over medical therapy, yet percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) lacked a similarly robust evidence base in this specific cohort until the REVIVED-BCIS2 trial.

The REVIVED-BCIS2 Context

The REVIVED-BCIS2 trial was designed to address the efficacy of PCI in patients with severe ischemic left ventricular dysfunction (LVEF ≤35%) and demonstrable myocardial viability. The primary trial results were transformative, showing no significant difference between PCI plus optimal medical therapy (OMT) and OMT alone in the primary composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or hospitalization for heart failure. Despite these findings, a critical question remained: Does the baseline risk of the patient influence the potential benefit of PCI? In many areas of cardiology, high-risk patients are often the most likely to derive benefit from invasive interventions—a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the risk-treatment paradox. This prespecified analysis aimed to investigate whether a participant’s baseline risk introduces heterogeneity in the treatment effect of PCI.

Study Design and Risk Prediction Methodology

The study utilized data from 700 participants randomized in the REVIVED-BCIS2 trial. To evaluate the impact of baseline risk, the researchers developed a robust prediction model using pre-randomization data. This model was designed to predict the primary outcome of all-cause mortality or hospitalization due to heart failure.

Predictor Selection and Model Performance

The investigators identified 12 key baseline predictors, including age, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, LVEF, renal function, and the presence of diabetes, among others. The resulting prediction model demonstrated acceptable discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66–0.72). Calibration was also deemed acceptable, with a calibration slope of 0.79 (95% CI 0.64–0.95), suggesting that the model could accurately categorize patients into varying strata of clinical risk.

Statistical Framework for Heterogeneity

The primary objective was to determine if the treatment effect (PCI vs. OMT) varied across the spectrum of predicted baseline risk. This was assessed using an interaction term between the baseline risk score and the treatment assignment. A p-interaction value was calculated to determine if the differences observed across risk groups were statistically significant or merely due to chance.

Key Findings: No Interaction for the Primary Outcome

The central finding of this analysis is the absence of statistical evidence that baseline risk modified the effect of PCI on the primary outcome. The p-interaction for the composite of all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization was 0.21.

Primary Outcome Distribution

Regardless of whether a patient was at low, intermediate, or high risk for death or hospitalization at the start of the study, the addition of PCI to OMT did not significantly alter their clinical trajectory. During a median follow-up of 41 months, 263 participants (37.6%) experienced a primary outcome event. The lack of interaction suggests that the neutral results of the main REVIVED-BCIS2 trial are consistent across the entire risk profile of the population studied.

The Secondary Outcome Signal

While the primary outcome showed no interaction, the analysis of secondary outcomes provided a more nuanced picture. For the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization due to heart failure, a weak evidence of interaction emerged (p-interaction = 0.044). Interestingly, the trend suggested that participants with a lower baseline risk might derive a greater relative benefit from PCI compared to those with higher risk scores. This finding is somewhat counterintuitive to the traditional risk-benefit model, where higher-risk patients are typically prioritized for intervention.

Expert Commentary and Clinical Interpretation

These findings carry significant weight for clinical decision-making in the catheterization lab and the heart failure clinic. The lack of benefit in high-risk patients is particularly noteworthy. It suggests that in the presence of advanced ischemic cardiomyopathy, the myocardial substrate and the systemic burden of heart failure may be the primary drivers of prognosis, rather than the presence of epicardial coronary stenoses that are amenable to PCI.

Why Does Lower Risk Trend Toward Benefit?

The observation that lower-risk patients might trend toward benefit in cardiovascular-specific outcomes warrants further investigation. It is possible that in patients with less systemic frailty and better-preserved renal and pulmonary function, the technical success and physiological impact of PCI are more pronounced. Conversely, in the highest-risk cohorts, the competing risks of non-cardiovascular mortality and the severity of existing myocardial scarring may overwhelm any potential gain from revascularization.

Biological Plausibility and Myocardial Viability

It is important to remember that all patients in REVIVED-BCIS2 were required to have evidence of myocardial viability. The fact that PCI failed to show benefit even when stratified by risk suggests that the ‘hibernating myocardium’ hypothesis—which posits that revascularizing viable but dysfunctional muscle will improve LVEF and outcomes—may not be as universally applicable to PCI as it was once thought to be for CABG.

Limitations and Generalizability

As with any post-hoc or prespecified sub-analysis, the study is limited by its power to detect interactions. While 700 patients provide a robust cohort for a primary endpoint, the subdivision of these patients into risk strata reduces the statistical power to identify subtle treatment effects. Additionally, the ‘weak evidence’ for the secondary outcome interaction (p=0.044) should be interpreted with caution and viewed as hypothesis-generating rather than definitive.

Conclusion: OMT Remains the Foundation

The prespecified analysis of REVIVED-BCIS2 confirms that for patients with ischemic left ventricular dysfunction, baseline clinical risk should not be the sole determinant for recommending PCI. The data reinforce the main trial’s conclusion: PCI does not reduce the risk of all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization when added to OMT in this population, and this holds true across the risk spectrum. For clinicians, the focus must remain on the optimization of medical therapy, including quadruple therapy for heart failure, while reserving PCI for patients with refractory angina or other specific clinical indications. The search for a subgroup that clearly benefits from PCI in the setting of ischemic cardiomyopathy continues, but for now, the evidence supports a conservative initial approach.

Funding and Clinical Trial Information

The REVIVED-BCIS2 trial was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Program. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT01920048.

References

1. Ovesen C, Dodd M, Ryan M, Clayton T, Sharples L, Perera D. Impact of baseline risk of death or hospitalization on effectiveness of revascularization in patients with ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction-a prespecified analysis of REVIVED-BCIS2. Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. 2025;11(8):1440-1447. doi: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcaf108.
2. Perera D, Clayton T, O’Kane PD, et al. Percutaneous Revascularization for Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction. N Engl J Med. 2022;387(15):1351-1360. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2206606.
3. Velazquez EJ, Lee KL, Jones RH, et al. Coronary-Artery Bypass Surgery in Patients with Ischemic Cardiomyopathy. N Engl J Med. 2016;374(16):1511-1520. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1602001.